Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
