Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
